This GPS World article takes a look at the future technologies for the next 3 years, 3 to 5 years and 5 years plus. Virtual Worlds, User Interface Technologies, Augmented Reality and Seamless Work/Life Systems are mentioned within these timelines. From the article: "Physical location and orientation data—such as that provided by GPS—will be one of several keys to information technology business growth in the next several years as IT becomes more and more consumer-centric, says market-research firm Gartner Inc.
It will be consumer-driven innovation that continues to move into the enterprise space, continuing the trend begun by the PC. Companies that can't adapt may find themselves struggling to keep up, the market researcher suggests.
Within five years, what Gartner terms "augmented reality" will be one of the consumer-driven innovations shaping the IT market. Augmented reality, used for many years in niche applications, such as industrial maintenance, provides an overlay of relevant digital information by automatically sensing the physical location and orientation of the user. Routine availability of location-based sensing and augmented reality will lead to new enterprise applications that are location- and context-sensitive, Gartner says.
Corporate attitudes toward consumer-led technology extending into the enterprise must shift from an unavoidable nuisance to opportunity for additional innovation, according to the market researcher. Gartner analysts said employees will continue to push consumer technologies into the enterprise space, particularly in areas such as personal productivity tools and communications.
"By embracing and leveraging employee experimentation and experience with consumer technologies, enterprises can enjoy a significant addition to the resources they can apply to evaluating innovation," stated Jackie Fenn, a Gartner fellow and vice-president.
Technologies that initially targeted and were adopted by consumers have long made an impact in corporate IT—from PCs to today's invasion of the enterprise by consumer-grade instant messaging (IM) and desktop search products, Gartner says.
"In the emerging world of 'permanent beta' innovation led by Web-native companies such as Google, the dominant approach is to throw a new capability out to potential users, see what they do with it, then figure out how to monetize it," Fenn said. "This fertile breeding ground enables a raw idea to be refined rapidly and allows many applications for a new capability to be explored and evaluated in parallel, making it increasingly likely that significant new functionality that is relevant to enterprises will first arise in the consumer world."
In some cases, a technology may have been used in niche areas of enterprise IT, but may not spread broadly until widespread consumer adoption drives down the price. However, not all classes of enterprise IT are likely to be equally affected by the consumer-first trend, according to the market research firm. The areas where most innovation will occur will be those relevant to individuals and small workgroups, including personal productivity, communications and social networking, and programming and development tools.
"The flood of consumer-led technologies into the enterprise is not going to subside," Fenn continued. "To fully realize the benefits, IT must embrace these technologies as an ongoing strategy rather than on a case-by-case basis."
Gartner says it has identified the next round of consumer-led innovations and the timing of when these innovations are likely to have an observable effect on revenue or internal spending and processes. Early adopters may be currently using innovations such as virtual worlds and green IT, but it will still be some years before they have a mainstream impact on revenue or internal spending.
Next Three Years:
- Web Platforms—the use of Web-based application services will start in the area of personal productivity, in particular collaborative authoring, and spread to enterprise applications. Just as "mashups" use third-party data, presentation and development tools to create original functionality, enterprises will increasingly benefit from the data and application services provided by nontraditional enterprise providers, such as Google, Yahoo, and Amazon.
- Community Communication Platforms—enterprise users have been accustomed to communicating through private channels, such as telephone, e-mail or IM, and attempts to move to a shared collaboration space have, for the most part, failed. Highly successful consumer community sites, such as Facebook, MySpace, and Cyworld, operate under the opposite assumption—that postings and communications are public and visible by default, unless you specify otherwise. In the collaboration space, the migration of alternate operating assumptions such as these will be as important as specific functionality.
- Desktop Videoconferencing—videoconferencing to the desktop will continue to grow during the next few years, spurred on by IM, desktop collaboration, and the casual and more-frequent use of videoconferencing at a click from the desktop.
- Portable Personalities—several vendors offer the ability to store the entire image of a PC workspace on a portable storage medium (such as a USB drive or an iPod) and have it temporarily run on a different machine, removing all traces of itself when the storage is removed. A common usage pattern is for bringing home environments (that is, incorporating favorite but nonstandard applications) to work, and to bring work environments home. Like IM, this falls into the class of technology that users will embrace on their own, and that enterprises must examine for security or licensing issues.
Three to Five Years:
- Virtual Worlds—although currently over-hyped in relation to their near-term value for most organizations, 3D virtual worlds, such as Second Life, will play a role in marketing and branding (and in some cases, corporate applications involving collaborative design) and other types of remote collaboration.
- Green IT—enterprises will also be affected by changing employee expectations driven by societal trends, including an expectation of environmentally friendly business practices—green IT. This will affect IT purchasing decisions and data center design, and also potentially drive a need for additional detailed data and reporting about an enterprise's carbon footprint.
- User Interface Technologies—a number of user interface technologies are gaining traction first in the consumer world, and then are likely to migrate to the business world. Adoption is being driven by lower prices in technologies such as large screen displays, commercializing new capabilities (such as the Nintendo Wii as a 3D controller), and ease of use (such as the routine use of videoconferencing).
Five Years Plus:
- Augmented Reality—As discussed previously, location-based sensing and augmented reality that are just now developing in the consumer space will spread to enterprise applications such as location- and context-sensitive information, and alerts presented as a manager walks through a manufacturing plant.
- Seamless Work/Life Systems—to support the blurring of work and home life; for example, systems that support, but keep distinct, personal and business communications and spending.
These conclusions come from Gartner's report titled "The Next Round of Consumer Technologies Will Soon Hit the Enterprise."